The Lens of Zero-Sum Thinking

Imagine believing that for someone else to succeed, you must fail. This way of thinking—assuming the world is a strict competition with winners and losers—is what psychologists and economists call zero-sum thinking.

It’s a powerful mental shortcut. But it often gives us a distorted picture of how the world actually works.


What Is Zero-Sum Thinking?

Zero-sum thinking happens when people treat situations as if any gain by one person automatically means a loss for another.

The term comes from zero-sum games, where the total payoff is fixed. Whatever one person gains, someone else must lose.

A simple example is the game Odds and Evens:

Two players show fingers at the same time. If the total is even, one player wins. If it’s odd, the other player wins. There is always exactly one winner and one loser.


Real-World Examples of True Zero-Sum Games

Some situations really do function this way.

Examples of genuinely zero-sum or near zero-sum situations include:

  • Competitive sports matches
    One team wins, the other loses.

  • Poker and most gambling games
    The money one player wins is money other players lose.

  • Political elections with a single winner
    Votes gained by one candidate reduce the chances of all others.

  • A single job promotion inside a firm
    If one person is promoted, everyone else is not.

  • Limited scholarships or awards
    If one applicant receives the award, another applicant cannot.

  • Draft picks or limited licenses
    When a scarce slot is allocated to one party, others lose access.

In these situations, the “pie” is fixed.


Non-Zero-Sum Situations

In contrast, many real-world situations allow for outcomes where everyone can benefit—or everyone can be harmed together.

A classic illustration is the Prisoner’s Dilemma, where both players can cooperate and both be better off, or both defect and both be worse off.

But non-zero-sum situations are not just theoretical.


Real-World Examples of Non-Zero-Sum Situations

Examples include:

  • Economic growth and trade
    Both sides of a voluntary exchange can become better off.

  • Scientific research and shared knowledge
    One person learning something does not prevent others from learning it.

  • Open-source software and collaborative projects
    Contributions increase the value of the shared system for everyone.

  • Education and skill development
    One person becoming more skilled does not reduce others’ ability to do the same.

  • Public health improvements
    When disease is reduced, everyone benefits simultaneously.

  • Creative collaboration
    Artists, writers, or developers can create outcomes that none could produce alone.

These situations allow for positive-sum outcomes, where the total benefits increase.


Examples of Zero-Sum Thinking in Everyday Life

Despite this, people frequently interpret non-zero-sum situations as if they were zero-sum:

  • Wealth inequality
    “The rich get richer only because the poor get poorer.”

  • Immigration
    “More resources for immigrants means fewer resources for everyone else.”

  • Relationships
    “Loving more than one person means loving each person less.”

  • Skill sets
    “If you have many skills, you must be worse at each one.”

  • Piracy
    “Every pirated download is a lost sale.”

  • Social groups and cliques
    “Stronger identity in one group necessarily weakens all others.”

The problem is not that these claims are always false.

The problem is that zero-sum thinking quietly assumes that only competitive outcomes are possible.


Why Zero-Sum Thinking Is Misleading

Zero-sum thinking collapses complex situations into a single structure:

winner versus loser.

But many real systems allow:

  • mutual success,

  • mutual failure,

  • mixed outcomes,

  • and long-term gains that expand what is available to everyone.

Humans can win together.
They can also lose together.

Yet zero-sum thinking filters those possibilities out of view.


Conclusion

Zero-sum thinking is not wrong because competition does not exist.

It is wrong when it becomes our default way of interpreting the world.

Some parts of life really are zero-sum: elections, promotions, championships, and fixed prizes.
But much of modern society—innovation, trade, education, culture, and cooperation—is fundamentally non-zero-sum.

When we mistakenly treat these domains as if they were rigid contests, we:

  • exaggerate conflict,

  • underestimate cooperation,

  • and overlook opportunities for shared progress.

Learning to recognize when a situation is truly zero-sum—and when it is not—may be one of the most important skills for thinking clearly about politics, economics, relationships, and social life.

Not every gain requires someone else to lose.

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Can Science Tell Us How to Live?

Broadly speaking, there are two main projects for science as it relates to morality:

  1. Explaining human behavior through the evolutionary process

  2. Rationally determine behaviors we should follow or avoid for well-being

These projects should be considered distinct, and we should be careful not to conflate them. Conflating Project 1 and Project 2 risks committing the naturalistic fallacy: just because something is natural does not make it good, and just because something is unnatural does not make it bad.

Social Darwinism, for example, is in no way a moral ideal. But understanding the implications of natural selection is still deeply important for developing a serious science of morality.


Project 1: Evolution and the Roots of Moral Intuition

Let’s look at Project 1 more closely.

Evolution not only provides the basis for the physical structures of organisms, but also the foundations for their behavior. It can therefore provide powerful explanations regarding the origins of moral intuitions, emotions, and values—especially when we compare human behavior with that of other animals.

Before diving deeper into evolutionary explanations, it’s essential to understand something more basic: the material basis of reality and how brains perceive it.

A material reality exists external to the mind. However, we do not perceive this reality directly. What we experience is a model of reality constructed through the filters of our senses.

Consider the famous philosophical thought experiment:

If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

In a strict sense, the answer is no. Without a conscious perceiver, there is no such thing as sound—only pressure waves moving through air. Sound itself is something brains create.

The same is true for color, taste, and smell. These sensations are not “out there” in the world in the same way matter is. They are experiences produced by nervous systems.

This matters because different organisms—and even different people—experience the same physical reality in radically different ways. Evolution shaped these perceptions because perception drives behavior.

Take the smell of human feces. Why does it smell bad to us?

It’s not because feces inherently stinks, it’s because human brains have evolved to perceive certain chemicals in feces negatively.

These chemicals emanate from feces and become airborne, where they are detected by our nose.

Human feces is a carrier of disease. Organisms that found feces repulsive were less likely to touch it, less likely to become ill, and more likely to survive and reproduce.

But flies experience those same chemicals differently. For them, feces is a food source. What disgusts humans may attract insects.

The important point is this:

Perception shapes behavior, and evolution shapes perception.

From this, we can begin to explain the origins of many moral intuitions. Evolution gives us a “natural morality” rooted in survival and reproduction—but that is not the same thing as an objective morality.


Project 2: Can Science Help Us Decide What We Ought to Do?

Project 2 is more controversial.

Project 1 is descriptive: it tells us what influences human behavior.
Project 2 is normative: it attempts to tell us what we ought to do.

Many critics argue that science cannot answer moral questions. And in one sense, this is correct: science alone cannot invent values from nothing.

However, this criticism often misses the deeper point.

Science may not create moral goals, but once we accept even the most basic moral premise—that suffering is bad and flourishing is good—science becomes highly relevant.

Values are not arbitrary. They are constrained by facts about the well-being of conscious creatures.

In that sense, moral claims can be understood as a specific kind of empirical claim:

X value produces more flourishing and less suffering than Y value.

For example:

Honesty creates more flourishing of conscious creatures than lying.

Often we already have strong intuitions about such claims. But a science of morality would allow us to test them systematically through psychology, neuroscience, economics, and real-world outcomes.

Of course, moral rules are rarely absolute. Honesty may promote flourishing in most cases, but there may be rare contexts where this is not the case.

This is why framing morality as a landscape is valuable:

Our world has many possible outcomes—some better, some worse. Peaks and valleys.

It contains a spectrum of competing values, and the moral question becomes:

Which values reliably move conscious creatures toward the peaks?


The Moral Landscape and the Future of Ethics

There is no doubt that a science of morality is still in its infancy.

Defining “flourishing” is difficult enough—how would we measure it?

  • Wealth?

  • Happiness surveys?

  • Physical health?

  • Brain scans?

  • AI simulations?

Our tools are limited, and the moral landscape is complex.

But early sciences were messy too. Medicine existed long before germ theory, and astronomy existed long before Newton. Progress came through refinement, measurement, and education.

Likewise, the foundations of a science of morality are forming. The purpose is not to replace moral debate, but to ground it more firmly in evidence rather than tradition, dogma, or power.

If morality is ultimately about the experiences of conscious creatures, then understanding those experiences scientifically is not optional.

It is something we ought to continue expanding, progressing, and teaching—like any other science.

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